What is the concept of a 'demographic winter'? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate. (Answer in 150 words)

Introduction

Demographic winter describes prolonged below-replacement fertility, population ageing and eventual population decline, with fewer workers supporting more dependants.

Drivers and effects

• Urbanisation, delayed marriage, women’s education and employment, high housing costs and changing aspirations reduce fertility.
• Consequences may include labour shortages, rising old-age dependency, pressure on pensions and slower economic dynamism.
• Population decline can also reduce environmental pressure and improve per-capita resource availability in some settings.

Is the world moving towards it?

• Many developed countries and several East Asian societies are already below replacement fertility.
• Global population continues to grow because of demographic momentum and higher fertility in parts of Africa and South Asia, though the rate is slowing.
• Thus the world is moving towards fertility transition, not a simultaneous demographic winter.
• Policies should combine reproductive choice, childcare, health, skills, managed migration and productive ageing.

Keywords: replacement fertility, demographic momentum, ageing, dependency ratio, productive ageing.